Written by Jibblescribbits | 14 June 2007

So I'll admit that Yesterday's post about offensive efficiency, I was coming in a little biased. I thought from the beginning that Stastny was a more efficient scorer than Malkin, and that Malkin got the benefit of more powerplay time, and that's why he is probably going to win the Calder tonight. I really tried to approach it as objectively as I could, but I caught myself thinking, Is this a valid statistic? Or did I devise a stat to prove my point This is a pet peeve of mine so I wanted to apply it objectively to a group of players and see if it meets my expectations.

So I decided to apply it to the entire Avs roster. Obviously if Kurt Sauer turns out to be more effective offensively than Joe Sakic, this is a bogus stat. So todays post is a test of the statistic. Based on my own personal bias, and a scout's analysis (i.e. In The Cheap Seats fantastic analysis of Avs players) I would guess that the 5 most efficient scorers would be Sakic, Hejduk, Stasny, Brunette and Wolski in that order. For defense It's a little different, but I would guess Liles and Clark top that list. (NOTE: I left off players who didn't have enough ice time to really be a good statistical analysis. That would make anamolous readouts, so I stayed with players with a significant chunck of ice-time.)

For even strength here's the analysis:

Player	ES TOI/20	ES points	ESP/20	ESG/20	ESA/20
Joe Sakic	59.43	57	0.959	0.337	0.623
Paul Stastny	50.24	46	0.916	0.338	0.577
Milan Hejduk	50.36	45	0.894	0.437	0.457
Andrew Brunette	54.69	47	0.859	0.329	0.530
Tyler Arnason	48.93	37	0.756	0.307	0.450
Brett McClean	45.66	34	0.745	0.329	0.416
Wojtek Wolski	48.33	32	0.662	0.310	0.352
Ian LaPerriere	47.99	28	0.583	0.167	0.417
Marek Svatos	32.72	19	0.581	0.214	0.367
Brad Richardson	37.06	19	0.513	0.297	0.216
Mark Rycroft	26.10	12	0.460	0.230	0.230

From this It looks as if my statistic holds up. The most efficient scorers on the Avs are, in order,

Sakic
Stastny
Hejduk
Brunette
Arnason

The only suprise there is Arnason is on this list and Wolski is actually 7th. the dropoff from 4-5 is pretty big too. (>.1), which doesn't suprise me either. It shows just how bad Svatos' year was last season, based on his efficiency being worse than LaPerriere. For a guy whose chances in the NHL rest on his ability to score points, that's nto a good thing. Now on the Power play:

Player Name	PPTOI/20	PP-Points	PPP/20	PPG/20	PPA/20
Andrew Brunette	16.862	36	2.135	0.534	1.601
Paul Stastny	14.960	31	2.072	0.735	1.337
Joe Sakic	20.876	43	2.060	0.766	1.293
Wojtek Wolski	9.701	17	1.752	0.722	1.031
Milan Hejduk	14.858	24	1.615	0.808	0.808
Marek Svatos	8.423	11	1.306	0.950	0.356
Tyler Arnason	9.593	12	1.251	0.104	1.147
Brett McClean	4.329	1	0.231	0.000	0.231

Well Brunette being on the top really suprises me. I would think Sakic would be #1, so him being #3 is a huge suprise. Wolski being more efficient on the Power play than Hejduk also suprises me a lot because hejduk plays on the first PP unit, with Sakic and Brunette and Stastny for most of the season. Overall it holds up though even with the anamolies (sakic #3, Wolski> Hejduk, etc.)

For defense the stats come out like:

Player	ES TOI/20	ES points	ESP/20	ESG/20	ESA/20
Jean-Michael Liles	44.26	16	0.362	0.136	0.226
Brett Clark	68.08	24	0.353	0.088	0.264
Ken Klee	66.34	18	0.271	0.045	0.226
Patrice Brisbois	23.33	6	0.257	0.000	0.257
Karlis Skrastins	56.90	11	0.193	0.000	0.193
Ossi Vaananan	51.15	8	0.156	0.039	0.117
Kurt Sauer	37.59	5	0.133	0.000	0.133

Which pretty much meets my expectations going in.
It shows how bad Brisbois was in the games he played in (lower points than Ken Klee is terrible).

For Completeness, Defense on the power play:

Player Name	PPTOI/20	PP-Points	PPP/20	PPG/20	PPA/20
Jean-Michael Liles	17.871	28	1.567	0.448	1.119
Brett Clark	13.735	14	1.019	0.291	0.728
Patrice Brisbois	4.905	5	1.019	0.204	0.815
Ken Klee	5.101	0	0.000	0.000	0.000

Showing that Liles is more efficient on the Powerplay (of course he was playing with Sakic, Brunette, Hejduk and Stastny most of the time, so there is still things unaccounted for).

So I think after this analysis that this is a pretty good statistic. All that's left is to give it a nerdy name/acronym. So I think i am going to start calling it the On-Ice Efficiency (OIE).

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