08 January 2008
As some of you may, or may not, remember, I came up with a stat called OIE (On-Ice Efficiency), which basically measures how many efficiently a player scores at even strength. There's also Powerplay OIE. Last season Evgeni Malkin racked up more points than Paul Stastny to basically win the Calder. He had more points and assists, but when you looked at the numbers Stastny was a more efficient scorere and only got less because he got less ice-time. Mainly because he didn't get power play points because of the potent Avs power play, which he wasn't on yet. (oh where did that go?)
So let's look at the Western Conference OIE players. I like OIE because it measures how well a player is scoring, but factors out the inflation that the powerplay gives. While PP points are important, I think ES points are a better indicator of how well a player plays, overall. So here's the top in the west. I also give an edge in ESG if a player is close (goal scoring being more important than assists only because of secondary assists):
|Player||OIE||Goal-OIE ||ES TOI||ESP|
So far the Voters seem to do pretty well. Iginla certainly is a no-brainer, and so Is Zetterberg. There is some room for debate though on Datsyuk as both Ribero and Stastny are Centers having, slightly, better years so far. Ribiero and Stastny also have significantly better ES Goal OIE's, which would mean I wouldn't make Datsyuk the starter, however this isn't the only analysis tool.
Another factor to take into consideration is Penalty +/-, developed by the great Preds Blog, On The Forecheck. He has a spreadsheet set-up that tracks how many penalties a player draws, and how many they take, and it gives a +/-. This is a good indicator of how often a player puts his team at an advantage (or disadvantage). For our 3 center candidates:
That Discrepancy cannot be ignored. Stastny's +8 isn't really helpful because the Avs don't score on the powerplay, so he could be +150 and it wouldn't really matter. Datsyuk is drawing penalties like a madman, and that easily makes up for the small OIE disparity between him, Stastny and Ribiero.
Conclusion: Fans make the right choice with these forwards
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