Yesterday Mike Chambers of the Denver Post had a write up at the Denver Post on Jan Hejda. I was unimpressed with his analysis.
Let's first adress the (very slight) potshot at me:
Don’t believe your little league anonymous blogger — plus-minus is hockey’s best overall statistic,
Actually let's ignore the potshot and look at the content. You should question what I say. Always. You should be skeptical. Just because I say it, it doesn't make it true. An opinion is worth nothing until it can be backed up. So what's the basis for Mike's opinion that +/- is "hockey's best overall statistic"
because it’s how hockey players judge themselves
Oh. Well what about the people whose job is actually judging how well hockey players are playing. Like a coach. Maybe an NHL coach. Maybe a Jack Adams and 2x President's cup winning coach? What would a person with that kind of pedigree have to say about +/-:
"[plus/minus] is not really indicative of how a player plays"
Oh. And how much stock does the Avs coaching staff put in plus/minus:
Hejda participated in all but one game, played a team-high 1,675 minutes and was second in average ice time (20:40 to Erik Johnson’s 20:50). So he was utilized. He was never in the dog house (except, maybe, for that one game the team said he had a groin injury when it was carrying eight D). Like it or not, and politics notwithstanding, the coaching staff had faith in him throughout the season.
(emphasis mine). So the Avs coaching staff ignored his +/- and kept putting Hejda out there. But not only did they keep playing him minutes. They kept playing him hard minutes. Cam Charron had a really good quick look at Hejda yesterday:
But I'd like to dig even further into Hejda's usage:
no comments
Let's first adress the (very slight) potshot at me:
Don’t believe your little league anonymous blogger — plus-minus is hockey’s best overall statistic,
Actually let's ignore the potshot and look at the content. You should question what I say. Always. You should be skeptical. Just because I say it, it doesn't make it true. An opinion is worth nothing until it can be backed up. So what's the basis for Mike's opinion that +/- is "hockey's best overall statistic"
because it’s how hockey players judge themselves
Oh. Well what about the people whose job is actually judging how well hockey players are playing. Like a coach. Maybe an NHL coach. Maybe a Jack Adams and 2x President's cup winning coach? What would a person with that kind of pedigree have to say about +/-:
"[plus/minus] is not really indicative of how a player plays"
Oh. And how much stock does the Avs coaching staff put in plus/minus:
Hejda participated in all but one game, played a team-high 1,675 minutes and was second in average ice time (20:40 to Erik Johnson’s 20:50). So he was utilized. He was never in the dog house (except, maybe, for that one game the team said he had a groin injury when it was carrying eight D). Like it or not, and politics notwithstanding, the coaching staff had faith in him throughout the season.
(emphasis mine). So the Avs coaching staff ignored his +/- and kept putting Hejda out there. But not only did they keep playing him minutes. They kept playing him hard minutes. Cam Charron had a really good quick look at Hejda yesterday:
But I'd like to dig even further into Hejda's usage:
no comments
(This post will be crossed-posted at All Things Avs... I think.)
A couple days ago, Avs President & Governor (and soon-to-be owner) Josh Kroenke gave an interview to Adrian Dater about the state of the Avs (Dater posted a more in-depth version here). In many ways I agree with his assessment. I think the identity of the current Avs team is "Speed, energy & youth." I also agree that, with the CBA status currently in limbo, it makes planning for the future somewhat tricky.
At the same time, this is the second time in five months that Josh has come across as an owner who doesn't think all that highly of his fans (which are also his customers). The first time he came across as contemptuous towards fans was in the last interview he did, on December 18th, where he calledAvs fans "spoiled". Then, in the Dater interview, this statement really stuck out in my mind:
"If I was a fan, that's what I'd be saying too, to throw a bunch of money at something too," [Kroenke] said. "When you're sitting at the other side of the table, you want to do right by your fans, but you also want to protect your team a little bit, especially in a hard cap system."
The rest of his interview he seems pretty smart, but this statement strikes me as tone-deaf. I understand that, as president and governor, he's privvy to information that I'm not. I do have access to the Internet though, and I have a pretty decent knowledge of how a hard salary cap works (it's not all that complicated). I don't want Avs brass to "throw a bunch of money at it" but I would like them to throw more than the bare minimum amount of money possible at the problem(s).
Having access to the Internet also gives me access to this February 21st blog post by Tyler Dellows of mc79hockey. The key graphic (posted below) is a record of every team since the last collective bargaining agreement.
I think one thing it's important to notice is that there's some correlation between how much money teams spend and how well they have done. Sure there are exceptions (Hello, Toronto) but the teams with bad records tend to be the ones who have continually skimped on salary. The more the Avsskimp, the more likely they are to finish towards the bottom of the standings.
So, when do the Avs finally start putting money into their team to build a winner? Well Kroenke had thoughts on that too:
"With a young roster like this, we decided to let these guys develop and then at some point maybe we might try to surround them with other guys if we can't fill those voids through the draft while our other guys are developing. But I think we have a really good pipeline right now."
(emphasis mine) That sentiment makes a lot of sense. Josh went into more detail in the expanded interview:
"I know Duncan Siemens is coming along, and Tyson Barrie, Stefan Elliott and Brad Malone. Guys like that, as soon as our hockey people feel they’re ready to make a contribution, then we could add other guys."
A statement like that scares me a lot. Duncan Siemens will be 19 at the start of next season. Tyson Barrie & Stephan Elliott are older (both will be 21 to start the season). It is not uncommon fordefensemen to sit in the minors until they are 22 or 23 (Niklas Lidstrom didn't make the NHL until he was 21, Duncan Keith didn't start contributing until he was 22). Does this mean the Avs are going to wait wait 2-3 seasons for these guys to pan out before filling the roster voids? It sure sounds that way. What bothers me most is that the avs don't have to jeopardize the future to improve the team in the short term. Sure I'd love for the Avs to, ahem, throw money at Ryan Suter, but there are other UFA Defensemen that could make an immediate positive impact (Carle & Jackman, among others).
And Ryan Brad Malone is the only winger Kroenke mentioned there, and that's because the Avs are wafer-thin at wing depth. realize the "Hockey's Future" rankings aren't always that accurate, but the Avswing situation doesn't look all that promising. And yet there are winger free agents out there that could help the Avs a lot next season. Aside from the crown Jewel, Zach Parise, P.A Parenteau, JiriHudler, & Andrei Kostitsyn all would help this team do what they couldn't do well last season: score goals.
As a fan I make an emotional investment into the Avs. By buying tickets, gear, beer, nachos etc I also make a financial one as well. I've waited patiently for the Avs to go through a rebuild and it feels like those investments are finally starting to pay off, and I think the Avs have the resources to accelerate that pay off. It would be beyond frustrating to squander that.
no comments
A couple days ago, Avs President & Governor (and soon-to-be owner) Josh Kroenke gave an interview to Adrian Dater about the state of the Avs (Dater posted a more in-depth version here). In many ways I agree with his assessment. I think the identity of the current Avs team is "Speed, energy & youth." I also agree that, with the CBA status currently in limbo, it makes planning for the future somewhat tricky.
At the same time, this is the second time in five months that Josh has come across as an owner who doesn't think all that highly of his fans (which are also his customers). The first time he came across as contemptuous towards fans was in the last interview he did, on December 18th, where he calledAvs fans "spoiled". Then, in the Dater interview, this statement really stuck out in my mind:
"If I was a fan, that's what I'd be saying too, to throw a bunch of money at something too," [Kroenke] said. "When you're sitting at the other side of the table, you want to do right by your fans, but you also want to protect your team a little bit, especially in a hard cap system."
The rest of his interview he seems pretty smart, but this statement strikes me as tone-deaf. I understand that, as president and governor, he's privvy to information that I'm not. I do have access to the Internet though, and I have a pretty decent knowledge of how a hard salary cap works (it's not all that complicated). I don't want Avs brass to "throw a bunch of money at it" but I would like them to throw more than the bare minimum amount of money possible at the problem(s).
Having access to the Internet also gives me access to this February 21st blog post by Tyler Dellows of mc79hockey. The key graphic (posted below) is a record of every team since the last collective bargaining agreement.
I think one thing it's important to notice is that there's some correlation between how much money teams spend and how well they have done. Sure there are exceptions (Hello, Toronto) but the teams with bad records tend to be the ones who have continually skimped on salary. The more the Avsskimp, the more likely they are to finish towards the bottom of the standings.
So, when do the Avs finally start putting money into their team to build a winner? Well Kroenke had thoughts on that too:
"With a young roster like this, we decided to let these guys develop and then at some point maybe we might try to surround them with other guys if we can't fill those voids through the draft while our other guys are developing. But I think we have a really good pipeline right now."
(emphasis mine) That sentiment makes a lot of sense. Josh went into more detail in the expanded interview:
"I know Duncan Siemens is coming along, and Tyson Barrie, Stefan Elliott and Brad Malone. Guys like that, as soon as our hockey people feel they’re ready to make a contribution, then we could add other guys."
A statement like that scares me a lot. Duncan Siemens will be 19 at the start of next season. Tyson Barrie & Stephan Elliott are older (both will be 21 to start the season). It is not uncommon fordefensemen to sit in the minors until they are 22 or 23 (Niklas Lidstrom didn't make the NHL until he was 21, Duncan Keith didn't start contributing until he was 22). Does this mean the Avs are going to wait wait 2-3 seasons for these guys to pan out before filling the roster voids? It sure sounds that way. What bothers me most is that the avs don't have to jeopardize the future to improve the team in the short term. Sure I'd love for the Avs to, ahem, throw money at Ryan Suter, but there are other UFA Defensemen that could make an immediate positive impact (Carle & Jackman, among others).
And Ryan Brad Malone is the only winger Kroenke mentioned there, and that's because the Avs are wafer-thin at wing depth. realize the "Hockey's Future" rankings aren't always that accurate, but the Avswing situation doesn't look all that promising. And yet there are winger free agents out there that could help the Avs a lot next season. Aside from the crown Jewel, Zach Parise, P.A Parenteau, JiriHudler, & Andrei Kostitsyn all would help this team do what they couldn't do well last season: score goals.
As a fan I make an emotional investment into the Avs. By buying tickets, gear, beer, nachos etc I also make a financial one as well. I've waited patiently for the Avs to go through a rebuild and it feels like those investments are finally starting to pay off, and I think the Avs have the resources to accelerate that pay off. It would be beyond frustrating to squander that.
no comments
It's a 1st round picks column. (also, if you read this Wednesday, be sure to join my playoff pool)
(1) Vancouver Vs (8) Los Angeles Kings
I really like Vancouver as a team. The Sedins are great players, as is Ryan Kesler. They have a very strong 6-7 man deep defense, and a goaltending duo that rivals any in the NHL. Vancouver was the best team all season, and a worthy winner of the President's Trophy. They are no paper tigers as their Corsi Close was a very good .530. Their defense may be the most underappreciated in the game. Hamuis, Bieksa, Salo, & Edler is a very solid unit. Havin Ballard, Grangiani & Rome rounding it out isn't so bad either.
The problem is, things may have conspired against them. I think the Kings are just about the worst possible opponent for Vancouver to face, especially in their beat up state. (Daniel Sedin is hurt, which is a major blow)
The Kings have been red hot since fleecing the Columbus Blue Jackets out of Jeff Carter. Since the trade deadline their ESCorsi is a ridiculous ~.575. (I believe that is best in the league, FWIW) Meanwhile, Vancouver's is a very respectable ~.540. One of Vancouver's biggest advantages is always their goaltending, but Jonathon Quick certainly counters any advantage there.
The Canucks are battling injuries, incluiding to one of their best players, they have the added pressure of Vancouver and the ridiculous Luongo-Schneider situation (which, by the way is ridiculous). And they are playin an opponent that used the trade deadline wisely and became very formidable.
If there was a true upset, this is the one to be had. Kings over Canucks in 6.
(2) St Louis Blues vs (7) San Jose Sharks
Another series where there is no advantage to a great regular season, as St Louis pulls a very touch opponant in San Jose. Both of these teams are teams that no one could figure out this season. St Louis rode their goaltending to a great record, but they played very good hockey too. Their ESCorsi tied is a league-elite .540, so it wasn't just their goaltending.
Alex Pietrangelo created some Norris buzz (although he likely won't win it), but his development into an elite blue liner was a big reason the Blues felt comfortable trading away Erik Johnson. Although Chris Stewart hasn't worked out all that well this season, Kevin Shattenkirk chipped in another 43 points for the Blues. David Backes is a darkhorse for the Selke, and TJ Oshie, after missing practice and being suspended for a few games last season, quietly put together a solid campaign.
But the Sharks will be no pushover. Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski, & Patrick Marleau will be their normal selves. And the Sharks finally have MAtin Havlat back. Dan Boyle anchors a defense that includes the solid Brent Burns and Mar-Eduard Vlasic. That said, with all that talent, the Sharks have not been able to put ot together this season. Their ESCorsi is ~.510, and since the trade deadline it hasn't gotten better (or worse). I can't figure out why, but the Sharks are an above average team this season, but nothing more.
So I think St. Louis is the better team, and while anything's possible, I don't think it's likely that Niemi is going to steal a series.
Blues in 5
(3) Phoenix Coyotes vs (6) Chicago Blackhawks
How in the world did Phoenix win their division? Mike Smith, and a little bit of luck. Frankly, I don't think Phoenix is a very good team. They got a very improbable 77-point season out of Ray Whitney, and an even more improbable season out of Smith, who may get a Vezina nomination. Shane Doan had 60 points, and Keith Yandle is still a very very good hockey player. But other than that, I just don't know how these guys did it (it helps that they won their division with less than 100 points). Their < .500 Corsi is easily the lowest in the western conference.
Meanwhile, Chicago was 4th in the guantlet that was the Central. Don't let that #6 seed fool you, this is a very good hockey team. They had a ~.535 ESCorsi on the season. They played a good chunk of those games without their captain and best player, Jonathon Toews. They still have a very very talented core in Toews, Hossa (who had 77 points himself) Kane, Sharp, Keith & Seabrook. Their biggest weakness is goaltending, where Crawford is probably the worst goalie still playing in the conference.
So I think it's more likely that Smith will steal a series than Niemi (And Crawford could blow one), I think Chicago is going to dominate this one.
Blackhawks in 4
(4) Nashville Predators vs (5) Detroit Red Wings
Nashville had an ok group of skaters, defying and ESCorsi of ~.470 (weakest of the playoffs). Obviously a big reason they are able to overcome their skaters is the somehow still underappreciated Pekke Rinne. Obviously, Weber & Suter are possibly the best 1-2 defensive tandem in the NHL, & The predators have some talent up front, with Erat, Fisher, athe Kostitsyn bros, and David Legwand.
Meanwhile the Red Wings are the Red Wings. Another season of ESCorsi in the ~.540 range. Another season of Lidstrom, Zetterberg, and Datsyuk holding onto the puck toying with their opponents. Valteri Filpulla actually also had a very nice unheralded season, and a defensive corps that is 5 deep with Lidstrom, Stuart, Kronwall, Quincey, and Ian White, along with Jonathon Ericsson gives them a defense every bit as deep as the Canucks, and maybe even a bit deeper. Jonathon Franzen has picked up for the ghost of Thomas Holmstrom.
I think the bigest question for this series is: How big an impact will Alexander Radulov have? It's impossible to predict with numbers, because the sample size is too small. He was the best pickup the team could have made, but is it enough to turn their, frankly, average group of skaters into a goroup that can hold their own with the Red Wings
Unfortunately, I don't think he'll be enough. Rinne has as good a chance as anyone to steal a series, but I think Detroit is the better team
Red Wings in 6
no comments
(1) Vancouver Vs (8) Los Angeles Kings
I really like Vancouver as a team. The Sedins are great players, as is Ryan Kesler. They have a very strong 6-7 man deep defense, and a goaltending duo that rivals any in the NHL. Vancouver was the best team all season, and a worthy winner of the President's Trophy. They are no paper tigers as their Corsi Close was a very good .530. Their defense may be the most underappreciated in the game. Hamuis, Bieksa, Salo, & Edler is a very solid unit. Havin Ballard, Grangiani & Rome rounding it out isn't so bad either.
The problem is, things may have conspired against them. I think the Kings are just about the worst possible opponent for Vancouver to face, especially in their beat up state. (Daniel Sedin is hurt, which is a major blow)
The Kings have been red hot since fleecing the Columbus Blue Jackets out of Jeff Carter. Since the trade deadline their ESCorsi is a ridiculous ~.575. (I believe that is best in the league, FWIW) Meanwhile, Vancouver's is a very respectable ~.540. One of Vancouver's biggest advantages is always their goaltending, but Jonathon Quick certainly counters any advantage there.
The Canucks are battling injuries, incluiding to one of their best players, they have the added pressure of Vancouver and the ridiculous Luongo-Schneider situation (which, by the way is ridiculous). And they are playin an opponent that used the trade deadline wisely and became very formidable.
If there was a true upset, this is the one to be had. Kings over Canucks in 6.
(2) St Louis Blues vs (7) San Jose Sharks
Another series where there is no advantage to a great regular season, as St Louis pulls a very touch opponant in San Jose. Both of these teams are teams that no one could figure out this season. St Louis rode their goaltending to a great record, but they played very good hockey too. Their ESCorsi tied is a league-elite .540, so it wasn't just their goaltending.
Alex Pietrangelo created some Norris buzz (although he likely won't win it), but his development into an elite blue liner was a big reason the Blues felt comfortable trading away Erik Johnson. Although Chris Stewart hasn't worked out all that well this season, Kevin Shattenkirk chipped in another 43 points for the Blues. David Backes is a darkhorse for the Selke, and TJ Oshie, after missing practice and being suspended for a few games last season, quietly put together a solid campaign.
But the Sharks will be no pushover. Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski, & Patrick Marleau will be their normal selves. And the Sharks finally have MAtin Havlat back. Dan Boyle anchors a defense that includes the solid Brent Burns and Mar-Eduard Vlasic. That said, with all that talent, the Sharks have not been able to put ot together this season. Their ESCorsi is ~.510, and since the trade deadline it hasn't gotten better (or worse). I can't figure out why, but the Sharks are an above average team this season, but nothing more.
So I think St. Louis is the better team, and while anything's possible, I don't think it's likely that Niemi is going to steal a series.
Blues in 5
(3) Phoenix Coyotes vs (6) Chicago Blackhawks
How in the world did Phoenix win their division? Mike Smith, and a little bit of luck. Frankly, I don't think Phoenix is a very good team. They got a very improbable 77-point season out of Ray Whitney, and an even more improbable season out of Smith, who may get a Vezina nomination. Shane Doan had 60 points, and Keith Yandle is still a very very good hockey player. But other than that, I just don't know how these guys did it (it helps that they won their division with less than 100 points). Their < .500 Corsi is easily the lowest in the western conference.
Meanwhile, Chicago was 4th in the guantlet that was the Central. Don't let that #6 seed fool you, this is a very good hockey team. They had a ~.535 ESCorsi on the season. They played a good chunk of those games without their captain and best player, Jonathon Toews. They still have a very very talented core in Toews, Hossa (who had 77 points himself) Kane, Sharp, Keith & Seabrook. Their biggest weakness is goaltending, where Crawford is probably the worst goalie still playing in the conference.
So I think it's more likely that Smith will steal a series than Niemi (And Crawford could blow one), I think Chicago is going to dominate this one.
Blackhawks in 4
(4) Nashville Predators vs (5) Detroit Red Wings
Nashville had an ok group of skaters, defying and ESCorsi of ~.470 (weakest of the playoffs). Obviously a big reason they are able to overcome their skaters is the somehow still underappreciated Pekke Rinne. Obviously, Weber & Suter are possibly the best 1-2 defensive tandem in the NHL, & The predators have some talent up front, with Erat, Fisher, athe Kostitsyn bros, and David Legwand.
Meanwhile the Red Wings are the Red Wings. Another season of ESCorsi in the ~.540 range. Another season of Lidstrom, Zetterberg, and Datsyuk holding onto the puck toying with their opponents. Valteri Filpulla actually also had a very nice unheralded season, and a defensive corps that is 5 deep with Lidstrom, Stuart, Kronwall, Quincey, and Ian White, along with Jonathon Ericsson gives them a defense every bit as deep as the Canucks, and maybe even a bit deeper. Jonathon Franzen has picked up for the ghost of Thomas Holmstrom.
I think the bigest question for this series is: How big an impact will Alexander Radulov have? It's impossible to predict with numbers, because the sample size is too small. He was the best pickup the team could have made, but is it enough to turn their, frankly, average group of skaters into a goroup that can hold their own with the Red Wings
Unfortunately, I don't think he'll be enough. Rinne has as good a chance as anyone to steal a series, but I think Detroit is the better team
Red Wings in 6
no comments
The Jibblescribbits playoff pool for 2012.
The rules are simple. There are 16 Bins to select players out of, one for every playoff team. Select one player form each bin. You must select at least 4D and 2G, along with 10F.
Points are:
1pt - Goal
1pt - Assist
1pt - OT goal
3pts - Hat Trick
2pt - Win
1pt - shutout
It's usually best to select forwards and goalies from teams you think will do well.
Here's the instructions: Go Here (Hockeydraft.ca)
At the top there's a log in to the pool.
Login Name: Jibblescribbits
Login Password: Avs2012
You're in the pool. Now go to the "Entry Form" tab. Enter your team name, e-mail address, and a password. Select a player from every bin (With at least 4 Defensmen slected and 2, no more no less, goaltenders).
Submit Entry when you are done.
That's all it takes.
The winner gets a free post on Jibblescribbits, about anything. no comments
The rules are simple. There are 16 Bins to select players out of, one for every playoff team. Select one player form each bin. You must select at least 4D and 2G, along with 10F.
Points are:
1pt - Goal
1pt - Assist
1pt - OT goal
3pts - Hat Trick
2pt - Win
1pt - shutout
It's usually best to select forwards and goalies from teams you think will do well.
Here's the instructions: Go Here (Hockeydraft.ca)
At the top there's a log in to the pool.
Login Name: Jibblescribbits
Login Password: Avs2012
You're in the pool. Now go to the "Entry Form" tab. Enter your team name, e-mail address, and a password. Select a player from every bin (With at least 4 Defensmen slected and 2, no more no less, goaltenders).
Submit Entry when you are done.
That's all it takes.
The winner gets a free post on Jibblescribbits, about anything. no comments
We don't know what Milan Hejduk's future holds, so tonight I am going to cheer like hell for Milan Hejduk. In fact, I may cheer every time he touches the puck, just to give him the send off he deserves, lest he not return next season.
I also encourage everyone to check out this nice Adrian Dater feature on him in the Denver Post.
In my opinion, it's probably ~75% chance that Hejduk doesn't return next season. There's probably a 50/50 chance he retires, and the Avs may be ready to move on without him. With the season he's had, it's hard to see where he might fit in if he does come back. He's been (rightfully) demoted to the third line and PPs by coach Joe Sacco this season.
I'm not a fan of telling players when they "should" retire. Playing professional sports is one of the best jobs in the world and one of the most difficult to obtain. The window for playing them is incredibly short. If a once elite player wants to change his role and chip in on the 4th line, that's all his business. He won't get another chance at it. If Hejduk wants to play, and he can find a team to take him, I fully support it. Red Wings not withstanding of course
Yet, if he wants to, I think Hejduk is more valuable than a number of players the Avs have signed for next season, and hope the Avs would consider bringing him back in a role more akin to the one he was at the end of the season. Against much tougher competition and similar zone starts he still has much much better possession metrics than a guy like Kobasew. His days on the top six may be over (and they may not, In a 3rd/4th liner on the 2nd PP unit he's still a valuable player. And he'd be a great mentor for a guy like Olver. In fact a thrid line of Hejduk-Olver-Mueller isn't the worst third line in the world.
In true Hejdukian form, I'm not sure he gets the respect he deserves locally. I don't think Ray Borque's banner raising should be the bar for every Avalanche player, I do think Hejduk's impact on the franchise measures up favorably to Adam Foote who will (likely) have his number raised to the rafters next season. His Avs franchise rank in vital stats are: GP (1st), Goals (2), Assists (3), Points (2), Shots (2) and GWG (1). Anywhere he isn't 1 he's trailing only Joe Sakic and Peter Forsberg in assists. That's pretty damn good company. And the lead he has over #4 in all those categories is substantial.
But we can discuss appropriate honors for Hejduk post career at a later date. He's still active for maybe just one more game. For that game, at least, we can all chear like hell.
no comments
I also encourage everyone to check out this nice Adrian Dater feature on him in the Denver Post.
In my opinion, it's probably ~75% chance that Hejduk doesn't return next season. There's probably a 50/50 chance he retires, and the Avs may be ready to move on without him. With the season he's had, it's hard to see where he might fit in if he does come back. He's been (rightfully) demoted to the third line and PPs by coach Joe Sacco this season.
I'm not a fan of telling players when they "should" retire. Playing professional sports is one of the best jobs in the world and one of the most difficult to obtain. The window for playing them is incredibly short. If a once elite player wants to change his role and chip in on the 4th line, that's all his business. He won't get another chance at it. If Hejduk wants to play, and he can find a team to take him, I fully support it. Red Wings not withstanding of course
Yet, if he wants to, I think Hejduk is more valuable than a number of players the Avs have signed for next season, and hope the Avs would consider bringing him back in a role more akin to the one he was at the end of the season. Against much tougher competition and similar zone starts he still has much much better possession metrics than a guy like Kobasew. His days on the top six may be over (and they may not, In a 3rd/4th liner on the 2nd PP unit he's still a valuable player. And he'd be a great mentor for a guy like Olver. In fact a thrid line of Hejduk-Olver-Mueller isn't the worst third line in the world.
In true Hejdukian form, I'm not sure he gets the respect he deserves locally. I don't think Ray Borque's banner raising should be the bar for every Avalanche player, I do think Hejduk's impact on the franchise measures up favorably to Adam Foote who will (likely) have his number raised to the rafters next season. His Avs franchise rank in vital stats are: GP (1st), Goals (2), Assists (3), Points (2), Shots (2) and GWG (1). Anywhere he isn't 1 he's trailing only Joe Sakic and Peter Forsberg in assists. That's pretty damn good company. And the lead he has over #4 in all those categories is substantial.
But we can discuss appropriate honors for Hejduk post career at a later date. He's still active for maybe just one more game. For that game, at least, we can all chear like hell.
no comments
This morning the talk around the Avs is "What happened?"
Well I think what happened is that the Avs weren't one of the best 8 teams in the conference this season. But despite that, this is the first season in years (maybe even since the lockout) where I really feel like the Avs are on their way to becoming one of the better teams. Now The Miser of Denver could undo that feeling by not allowing his staff to go after any free agents this summer, but for now I finally feel like the Avs have a real plan going forward and they are executing that plan.
So I'm bummed they won't make the playoffs, but I see it, at least a little, as a blessing in disguise. I think the Avs have traditionally been a team that overrates their own prospects just a touch. Maybe this 9-10th place finish will help them realize that they could use some free agent help and that a true rebuild can't fill every hole. Every cup contender this seaosn has had to dip into the free agent well (or trade away prospects for some help)
The nice part is, this is a team that has shown tremendous improvement over three years. When they made the playoffs three seasons ago, there were a lot of indicators that season was a fluke. The emergence of advanced stats in hockey had the 09-10 Avs as a weak team who were getting a fair bit of luck, but fans didn't want to hear that. I don't want to re-hash that argument again, but I think deep down most avs fans knew deep down that getting outshot 2:1 every night wasn't a recipe for long term success. Since then the Avs metrics have improved, mainly because the avs have been a smarter team. They drafted well (Eliott, Landeskog) come to mind, and they have made some savvy free agent moves and trades (Hejda, Johnson + McClement) to improve the team.
So I'm not depressed about the Avs season. It was a success. It finally feels like the avs have been reborn, and this season was year one of something special.
